Look back to the steel price in 2016
2016 five years to break down trend of steel prices mainly by asset allocation under the drought risk transfer, macro economy improves, macro factors such as comfortable on the financing side and the fundamentals of supply and demand balance, cost drive factors such as the impact.
1, the macroeconomic environment improved obviously
2014-15 years experience in the economy fell back quickly, the domestic economy this year or for some respite.In the first three quarters year-on-year GDP growth at 6.7%, obvious steady growth in 2016.Domestic manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from then started showing signs of recovery in the second quarter, third quarter appeared relatively strong rise;PPI index ended 54 consecutive months in negative territory, become a full member in September.Supply side injected new vitality into the economic reform.By eliminating backward production capacity, industrial enterprises to leverage, make domestic industries from deflation pattern, domestic inflation and moderate rise.The economy stabilises picks up is one of the important influence factors of commodity prices is strong.
2, under the background of asset allocation waste money wheel dynamic effect is obvious
Domestic steel products in 2016 financial manifest attributes and rebar, for example, phase spot both correlation coefficient as high as 98%, linkage effect is obvious.Steel futures prices is one of important factors influencing spot market movements.Due to large amounts of money to accelerate the volatility of futures products, harden drop stop number increased significantly, according to figures from the zhuo and information, as of December 7, 16 rebar zhang drop stop, and only four times in 2015, capital hype phenomenon is obvious.
3, the continuous depreciation under the effect of raw material costs significantly higher
2016 RMB exchange rate has been falling for commodities form relatively obvious cost support.Iron ore and other bulk raw materials price premium effect is obvious, it is also a domestic goods especially industrial products one of the important factors in the price of the renminbi devaluation leads to purchase raw materials costs, and raise industrial manufacturing costs.Excluding depreciation caused by raw material prices, some domestic raw materials such as coke pushing the rise in prices is also an important factor of steel cost.In 2016, according to zhuo gen information monitoring data show that domestic coking coal price from 600 yuan/ton price increases to a maximum of 2120 yuan/ton rose more than 200%, the coke in the steel raw material costs accounted for more than iron ore in early October.In October after the steel prices rising prices, driven mainly by coke is a typical cost-push up.
4, supply side reforms to boost capacity and environmental factors rising steel prices
2016 and baosteel, wisco, published throughout all the provinces to aggregate ironmaking production task is 45.555 million tons, 87.99 million tons of steel.The effective capacity total more than 40 million tons of iron and steel, hebei effective capacity of more than 19 million tons, with ironmaking effective production capacity of 9 million tons.And in the second half of intermediate frequency furnace steelmaking inspection, to a large extent affected the supply of steel market expectations, in the key stage of steel price form relatively obvious support;Other environmental factors also play an important role in 2016, tangshan exposition, the G20 meeting in hangzhou and after November fog governance also help
5, a slowdown in exports
Domestic steel prices rose sharply weakened price advantage, square steel export tax rebate check, anti-dumping, export growth, but the overall level is higher.
In the first half of growth momentum, up to 10.94 million tons (June), the second half of the overall exports showed a trend of decline, at the level of 1 million tons per month.October 1 - China's exports of steel 92.74 million tons, up 0.7% from a year earlier.Imported steel 10.91 million tons, up 2.1% from a year earlier.
6, China's steel exports mainly depends on Asia
China's steel exports in the first 10 big destination countries of Asia, southeast Asia, six, two east Asia, South Asia, west Asia 1;Is the largest South Korea 12.2 million tons, 8.9% growth, Vietnam, 10.07 million tons, 21.2%.Southeast Asia, large-scale infrastructure construction demand rapid growth over the last two years.
7, continue to inventory
The improvement of relations between supply and demand and circulation mode change (increase steel mills, traders straight for circulation, shrink back to peak hard) market inventory, steel association focused on inventory levels back to 13 years.Five varieties market inventory: in the same period last year, 8.42 million tons, 7.85 million tons this year, plate stock just drop, thread.
8, the improvement of relations between supply and demand
Steel straight for direct proportion.
Bank loans, traders prefer stable profit project distribution, shrinking in number 12-14 years traders, such as financing, transformation, bankruptcy after hard to recover.
9, the downstream demand is difficult to see the growth
Infrastructure, real estate investment growth, manufacturing investment decline.
10, in October 2016, the national investment in fixed assets 48.4429 trillion yuan (excluding farmers), year-on-year growth of 8.3%, in the name of forecast of 8.2%.Infrastructure construction and real estate growth, enterprise profit decline, capital shortage restrict their investment, low capacity utilization, cause the loss of manufacturing investment growth.